A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
